Monsoon likely to be below normal, Skymet forecast rainfall at 92% across India

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New Delhi: India is expected to receive rainfall at 92 per cent of the long period average (LPA) this Monsoon, predicted private weather forecasting agency Skymet. Even though the southwest monsoon made a timely onset, it culminated with a below normal rainfall at 95 per cent of the LPA for June.

In July, monsoon made a made a poor start while during the latter half of the month weather conditions changed and rainfall hit parts of central and north India. July ended with a monthly count of 94 per cent of LPA rainfall.

“As of now, the oceanic parameters are not at all favourable for enhancing Monsoon rains during the second half of the season. Both the rainiest pockets of Northeast India and West Coast are likely to perform poorer than usual,” said Skymet Managing Director, Jatin Singh.

Here’s Skymet’s forecast for Monsoon 2018 on monthly basis:

* August – 88 per cent of LPA (LPA being 261 mm)

* 70 per cent chance of deficit rains

* 20 per cent chance of below normal rains

* 10 per cent chance of normal rains

September – 93 per cent of LPA (LPA being 173 mm)

* 60 per cent chance of below normal

* 20 per cent chance of normal

*20 per cent chance of above normal

According to Skymet’s calculations (assuming an error margin of +/-5 per cent) the following is the Monsoon risk spread over the four-month period of June, July, August and September (JJAS):

* 25 per cent chance of drought (seasonal rainfall being less than 90 per cent of LPA)

* 60 per cent chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall being between 90 and 95 per cent of LPA)

* 15 per cent chance of normal (seasonal rainfall being between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA)

* 0 per cent chance of above normal rains (seasonal rainfall being between 105 and 110 per cent of LPA)

* 0 per cent chance of excess (seasonal rainfall more than 110 per cent of LPA)

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